By Jerome Kuseh
I haven’t blogged in a while. Sorry. I have missed significant happenings like the Eurobond issue. I hope to have a comprehensive review of the year in December to make up for it.
I have a few thoughts on the budget statement that was read today. You can download it here.
- Growth adjusted upwards to 4.1% from 3.5%. 4.1% is nothing to be happy about but I guess it’s better than 3.5%. The target of 5.4% for 2016 seems optimistic especially as more fiscal tightening is expected. My guess is the government expects this to come from end of power crisis and investments to end it.
- Industry 9.1% (great!); Services 4.7% (not bad); and Agric 0.04% (WTF!).
- Fiscal target of 7.3% is projected to be met. Not bad. 5.3% in 2016 is not an easy commitment to keep in an ELECTION YEAR and I do not think the government will meet that.
- Projects mentioned to end the power crisis sounded impressive but we’ve heard too much of that. Just fix the thing!
- US$53.05 per barrel for oil going forward sounds reasonably optimistic. I don’t think we will see higher than that.
- Not good that MDAs have been granting tax exemptions without parliamentary approval. Good thing to stop that.
- Cocoa production of 740,000 tonnes against target of 850,000 is poor considering that the Ivory Coast is back with a bang.
- Issuing domestic debt from GSE and not BoG. Good.