In February 2023, Ghana’s Ministry of Finance announced the final issue of GH¢87.76 billion in restructured debt in its Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP). The bonds were issued in three categories:

General Category A: GH¢6.1 billion paying 10% interest per year.

General Category B: GH¢448 million paying 15% interest per year.

New General Bonds: GH¢81.21 billion paying interest in both cash and through an increase in the principal amount.

For a full breakdown of the restructured bonds and their interest payments, I recommend you read my explainer from February 2023.

The debt restructuring sent shockwaves among investors and the financial industry, with many banks posting huge losses on the back of a writedown of the government debt on their books. Many people have understandably sworn off purchasing government bonds since the restructuring happened and have looked for alternative investments. Nevertheless, there appears to be a silver lining for people who hold the restructured bonds as their prices have rallied in 2025.

Trading data from May 9 2025 shows that the prices of the restructured bonds have risen by a simple average of 17% from the start of the year. Note that the prices show how much a bondholder would receive if they were to sell their bond now rather than wait for maturity, and so the higher prices indicate that the bonds have become more attractive. See the price changes below.

Also see the chart below for a visual representation of the price changes.

So what could account for this performance of DDEP bonds? Why are investors turning their attention to it and driving up the prices?

1. Low treasury bill interest rates. Treasury bill rates started the year at around 28% but have been whittled down to about 15% on the back of reduced demand for cash by the government. Payment on about GH¢67.5 billion of arrears have been halted pending an audit. This has driven interest rates to the ground as the government has a smaller appetite for short-term borrowing. Given that interest rates are now at 15%, the 10% and 15% interest rates on the DDEP bonds suddenly do not look so bad especially as a GH¢1 face value of the restructured bond is selling at anywhere from 49 to 84 pesewas.
2. Possible refinancing? Government’s decision to turn away bids at the t-bill market is sparking rumours that they could be plans to issue new bonds to retire some of the existing DDEP bonds, especially those maturing in 2027 and 2028. This would bring instant liquidity to DDEP bondholders and some investors are seeking to cash in by grabbing the bonds on the open market.
3. Strong cedi. Cedi investments are becoming more attractive by the day as the currency gains against major trading partners. Suddenly a cedi investment that pays 10% to 15% interest looks like a gold mine now that the cedi has appreciated by over 10% against the US dollar from the start of the year.

OUTLOOK

This post is obviously not an invitation to go out and load your portfolio with DDEP bonds. Serious risks and uncertainty remain, specifically how the government will be able to settle all those billions in maturing debt. In an interview on November 7, then candidate John Mahama suggested refinancing the debt given the huge outlays that would be required relative to the nation’s annual budget. Should the refinancing option not be available, we cannot rule out re-negotiation of the terms of settlement.

In conclusion, a nation’s bonds ultimately depends on the nation’s economic health. If economic growth is strong, the fiscal balance is kept in check, inflation is on target, and the currency is relatively stable then the bonds are likely to do well regardless of past troubles. And ultimately that is what investors should look at when they are making decisions on where to put their money.